Calculating the error in long term oxide reliability estimates

Ultra-thin oxide reliability is a critical issue in integrated circuit scaling. Oxide reliability may actually prevent future scaling of SiO2 gate dielectrics. The statistical error in long term oxide reliability projections has not been cohesively treated. Using Monte Carlo techniques, the amount of uncertainty in reliability projections is calculated. Applying the derived results to typical published data, the uncertainty in the failure rate is greater than an order of magnitude.