Processes controlling precipitation in shallow, orographic, trade wind convection
A sharp reduction in precipitation was observed on the island of Dominica in the Caribbean during a 2011 field campaign when the trade winds weakened and convection transitioned from mechanically to thermally driven. The authors propose four hypotheses for this reduction, which relate to (i) the triggering mechanism, (ii) dry-air entrainment, (iii) giant sea-salt aerosol, and (iv) small-island-derived aerosol. The plausibility of the first three hypotheses is the focus of this study. Aircraft observations show the dynamics of the orographic cumulus clouds at flight level are surprisingly similar, irrespective of how they are triggered. However, the orographic cumulus clouds are consistently shallower when the trade winds are weak, which the authors attribute to a drier and shallower cloud layer compared to days with stronger trade winds. The strong negative influence of dry-air entrainment in a drier environment on cumulus depth and liquid water content is qualitatively demonstrated using an entraining plume model and the WRF Model. Although the models appear more sensitive than observations to entrainment and cloud size, the sensitivity tests have some resemblance to observations. The authors also find evidence of sea-salt aerosol entering the base of marine cumulus on strong wind days using an aircraft-mounted lidar and other instruments. Although each hypothesis is plausible, the complex interplay of these processes makes determining the controlling mechanisms difficult. Ultimately, the authors' analysis rejects the hypothesis (i) triggering, while supporting (ii) entrainment and (iii) sea-salt aerosol.