Publication
PNAS
Paper

Spreading processes with mutations over multilayer networks

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Abstract

In this work, we provide a mathematical framework to analyze spreading processes triggered by mutating contagions in the light of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as lockdowns that reduce physical contact in different social settings (e.g., schools and offices). To this end, we analyze multistrain spreading on multilayer contact networks, where network layers represent different social settings. Our results highlight that imposing/lifting interventions in different network layers should be evaluated in connection with their effect on the emergence of new strains. Moreover, reductions to existing models that do not simultaneously account for heterogeneity in the contagions strains and network layers may lead to incorrect predictions of the likelihood of the emergence of an epidemic outbreak.