A methodology for the refinement of well locations during operational drilling in presence of geological uncertainty
In this paper we present a methodology of automated optimal (in terms of NPV maximization) greenfield development strategy construction that takes into account geological uncertainties of the reservoir. The algorithm is based on ensemble of hydrodynamic models and uses the theory of probabilistic graphical models. The proposed methodology allows making dynamic (in the process of field development) decisions about well grid pattern change on the basis of information obtained from the studies on the oil reservoir carried out with the help of the appraisal wells: appraisal boreholes of the development wells and pre-drilling wells (drilling from current pad to the next one for refining geological targets). The decision of the wells pattern option change does not require any additional calculations. The proposed methodology was applied for creating optimal development strategy for one of the new assets (on production stage) of JSC "Gazprom neft". The reservoir development is complicated by the set of uncertain parameters related to the complex heterogeneous structure of the collector. The parameters have very high influence on the optimal decision choice. As result expected NPV is increased by 15%.